« Roger Thurow Joins Chicago Council on Global Affairs as Senior Fellow on Global Agriculture & Food Policy | Main | This Week's Edition of the Global Food for Thought News Brief »

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

I am empathetic with your desire to bring the fight against hunger to greater prominence. Governments' commitment to it was the subject of my dissertation. Why not hunger, indeed.

I have two quibbles with your discussion:

"And not only have we brought hunger into the new century and new millennium, we brought it with us in ever-increasing numbers."

That is not accurate. You cite the beginning and the wrong end point without considering what actually happened in the middle or at the real end point.

1 - There have been peaks and troughs throughout, depending on wars, travel costs, droughts, and market integration. The world did not end in 1974, nor in 1996, nor in 2007, despite temporary, sudden price hikes that caused a great deal of suffering for many people.

2 - From 1970 to 2000 the number of hungry people DECREASED, despite massive price hikes in 1973-74 and doomsday prophecies in 1996 at a much smaller swing upwards. According to the latest FAO numbers there were fewer people hungry each of the last 3 decades of the 20th century.

1970 1980 1991 2000
917.0 905.0 845.3 842.0

Now, much of this was in China. The numbers in Africa continued to rise. However, I demonstrate in a forthcoming publication with Pinstrup-Andersen that most of that rise in African hunger during the 1990s was only due to increases in the Democratic Republic of Congo - most other Sub-Saharan African countries showed almost no change in the number of hungry people. That is a great improvement over historical experience. Is there more to be done? Of course. But if we're going to celebrate government leaders taking photo ops talking about global warming without doing anything, we ought to celebrate real improvements even more so.

3 - The current FAO numbers are not finalized and they do not come from country estimates, but from a global guesstimate based on shaky assumptions. For instance, they assume that the price hikes from 2005-2008 were fully transmitted everywhere (they weren't in China), but the price decreases since were not.

4 - There is something to be said for also looking at the percent of the world suffering from hunger. That has been consistently decreasing since WWII - again, with the exception of rapid price swings. I recently had a journal article returned with a comment from a referee asking why I was even looking at the total number of hungry people instead of only on the percent. Both are important.

"The food crisis of 2008 exposed the decades-long negligence of agriculture development investment and the hypocrisy of policies like structural adjustment and farm subsidies that punished small farmers of the developing world, particularly in Africa."

I agree with the first part. However, it did more to expose the fragility of global food markets and the ability of food-exporting governments to undermine world price stability than the hypocrisy of US food subsidies which helped to mitigate the price swings. This is probably the first and only time I speak well of those subsidies, but the claim is that they increase US production and lower world prices, and that's exactly what you want for hungry people in a crisis. Over the long run, those subsidies have damaged the ability of poor farmers to feed themselves and their own countries and I don't defend them. But this is the one time when an admittedly the short-run, semi-myopic viewpoint says "Thank goodness for those subsidies when prices were high!"

Furthermore, those countries that did structural adjustments (and there was plenty wrong with how they were done) have been in a much better financial position to weather the triple storm of oil and food prices combined with recession. They have had room for stimulus action, to keep needed programs in place and expand care. Had they not retrenched earlier, there would be much more debt and collapse in developing countries.

Again, I support the call make this a decade to refocus on ending hunger, on making that fight a higher priority, on increasing international agricultural development and public research and bringing more of the benefits of the Green Revolution to Africa. We need to get our facts straight to do it, though. Otherwise it sounds like the G.R. did less than nothing and we play into the hands of its opponents; as if no previous effort has had any positive impact when governance reforms, research, and support have saved lives, lifted people out of poverty, and done incalculable good.

We have done good. We will do more in the future. It is important to redouble our efforts during the current setback.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

About the Blog

The Global Food for Thought blog, twitter feed, and facebook wall, provide updated information, commentary, and analysis on breaking developments on international agriculture, food, and related issues.

The Chicago Council and the Global Agricultural Development Initiative do not endorse the opinions expressed in this blog, twitter, and facebook but merely provide a forum for this information, commentary, and debate.

Author and Editor


Roger Thurow
Roger Thurow
Senior Fellow, Global Agriculture & Food Policy

Roger serves as the editor and principal contributor to the Global Food for Thought blog. He writes a weekly column as part of his "Outrage & Inspire" series.

Roger is coauthor of the book, ENOUGH: Why the World’s Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty.

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Other Resources

Africa Can End Poverty, World Bank

Bread Blog, Bread for the World

Institute Notes, Bread for the World Institute

IGD Blog, Initiative for Global Development

End Poverty in South Asia, World Bank

The Global Food Banking Network

Harvest 2020, Global Harvest Initiative

Global Development Blog, Center for Global Development

International Food Policy Research Institute News

International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center Blog , CIMMYT

Nourishing the Planet Blog, Worldwatch Institute

ONE Blog, ONE Campaign

Overseas Development Institute Blog

Oxfam America Blog

Tom Arnold's Blog, Concern Worldwide

We Have Decided